We woke up yesterday to two joyful items of news which arrived from North Korea. The first – that the North Koreans launched their three-stage missile despite clear warnings that the American food supply would be halted immediately. The second – that the launch failed and the missile disintegrated and fell into the sea some sixty seconds after it was launched.
The launch of the missile is a joyful item of news because it is a ringing slap in the face to the spineless sucker and political rookie Barak Obama, who approved the signing of the agreement to supply food to North Korea in exchange for the suspension of missile tests and nuclear weapon development despite loud warnings in Washington and the fact that the North Koreans already breached similar previous agreements several times in the past without blinking. This will make it much harder for Obama to convince the Americans and the other western representatives to the talks which about to start with Iran, to sign some kind of agreement, vague an unenforceable as it will be, with the Iranians regarding their nuclear programme, so that he will be able to cruise through the months remaining before the elections in the United States without being forced to order a military action, and more importantly – without allowing Israel to take such action.
The failure of the launch is also, of course, a joyful piece of news. The disintegrated missile was more complex and had a longer range than anything the Iranians managed to produce to date. It is well known that North Korean missile and nuclear technologies are regularly transferred to the Iranians. Let us hope that the launch’s failure would delay, even for a short time, the development of similar long range missiles in Iran. To Israel, this would make little difference – all its territory is already covered by shorter range Iranian missiles of previous generations. But the Europeans and Americans will be far less eager to embark on, or support, military action if they would know that Iran already possesses missiles, and perhaps even nuclear weapons, that can reach their territories.
And to those who claim that unlike the extreme insanity characterising the North Korean regime, the Iranians are rational people whose actions can be predicted if their logic and motives are understood – I recently heard the former Israeli air force commander Eliezer Shkedi talking about the Iranian obsession with the missing Mahdi and the creation of the vital conditions for his return. When the survival and the long term existence of the state of Israel and its people are concerned, I wouldn’t place too much weight on the assumption, or perhaps the faint hope, that the Iranians are rational people. Israel cannot place its trust in the logic of some Habibulka, just as the Americans cannot place their trust in the logic of some Kim Jong Shmong.